‘A Critical Scenario’: Conflict on Iran Tightens India's LPG Availability.

The shockwaves of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now being felt in India's homes.

As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, availability of cooking gas are dwindling across India, compelling restaurants to reduce offerings, close earlier and in some cases close completely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing lines outside LPG distributors across Indian metros and localities as concerns over fuel supplies spread. Commercial LPG users appear the worst hit: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.

"Conditions are critical. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the a major restaurant body.

Most restaurants run either on commercial LPG cylinders or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "Numerous restaurants have closed - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are adopting traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep kitchens going."

Localized Effects

In a western metro, accounts say up to a significant portion of hospitality businesses are already fully or partly shut as cylinder availability tighten. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some restaurants say their gas stocks have shrunk with little backup. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no other dishes - it is truly dismal. Businesses are going to suffer," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Menus are being curtailed, some are skipping midday meals and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers observe a spike in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are running out of them.

Authority's View

Yet, the government states there is sufficient stock.

India has more than a vast number of household consumers and spokespersons say cylinders are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

Roughly a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about 90% of those imports pass through the key maritime route, the vital passage now effectively closed by the hostilities.

The petroleum ministry says that it directed refineries to boost LPG output for home needs, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being allocated for critical services such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".

"A degree of anxious stocking and hoarding has been sparked by rumors. The normal delivery cycle for household cylinders remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.

Growing Panic

Now the worry is extending beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of scooters outside a fuel station. "Concern is genuine," the text reads.

According to reports from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be overstated.

India imports almost all of its crude oil. Around half of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the deficit could be partly compensated for by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a sector expert.

Based on maritime intelligence and expert analysis, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The key weakness is cooking gas, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through Hormuz.

Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be somewhat alleviated through diversification. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable. LPG availability is the critical issue to track in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the anxiety on the ground is not just tight supply but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of stockpiling.

An industry representative claims price gouging.

"Suppliers are taking advantage of the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and auctioned off."

For now, India's energy imports may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in restaurants across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.