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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

However this year's field is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and recent also-rans rising collectively. During an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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