Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
