Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fueled a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”